Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Tape Reading from a Dummy

Not trading today due to my trading mentor is not in today and I dont want to do anything rash. I am watching the tape action of several stocks and writing them out will allow me to analyze and criticize my thoughts more subjectively due to the fact that when they emerge from my brain, they are automatically biased. But if I put them on paper before acting, the visual factor will hopefully dilute my objectivity and allow me to subjectively view my thoughts. If I do not subject my thoughts to an object, and act on them right away, the lack of objective exposure leaves me with just one opinion. My first and only opinion. But when putting them on paper, they are automatically re evaluated from a visual perspective, allowing for me to criticize my own thoughts as they are thoughts that are not simply thoughts anymore, they are now just words on paper, diluting my bias. So here I go.

$POT: 57.50 my inflection point for severe scrutiny Strong out of the gate, making new highs rather quickly,with a ton of huge prints going off, and it was hidden. So that told me that someone wanted this one bad, and he knew that showing size will cause him to chase his tail. So it was interesting. When prints hit the bid heavily, the prices didnt fall. The selling was absorbed and than pushed higher.My thoughts were this. that 58.60 to 59 level was key, and there was way too much buying that was required for $POT just to get near 58.50..No selling virtually, and you know there are plenty of sellers in potash. The move higher was more of a pop than steady accumulation, and the second it popped near 59 the sellers came out of the woods. Than I saw some buying at 58.50 area but it was weak and sloppy, and it dripped throughout the day, and has now constant hidden sellers pressing on every pop.Every press is going uncontested here. Strength was created in this stock on thursday and friday, so it looks like shakeout, but the buying is weak here. gonna watch what happens when it breaks lows at 57.60........some buyers here at .65...but it looks feeble. waiting for the press off of the pop to .80...might pop as selling seems to lack the conviction near lows at .60-.70..wooosh there we go lets see what happens here at .50. not bouncing strongly here, barely hanging on to .50 zone. gonna drip imo. gotta jet be back soon.

Back from lunch . Happy to see $POT has indeed did what I thought. I expect prices to bounce from here, at 57 level. Will not be a strong close, as the transfer of shares has already occurred in my opinion to set the stage for a nice move tomorrow but I am sure that I can be , as I am many times, wrong. The time is now 1:30 PM, I left right after potash lost the .50 area, and the bounce according to the chart, that I missed, from 57 was accompanied by heavy buying. My opinion is that the hands that have accumulated at 57 and have caused this doji will now simply accumulate more passively and follow through tomorrow. But, the tape knows all, so I will watch.

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