Thursday, June 30, 2011

Defense is the best offense

first I posted the $ITA which is the ETF for the Aerospace and Defense Sector,and it looks very strong and I follow that chart with several strong stocks from that sector.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Stocks to Swoon Over

For the record, I have a very psycholgical thought process as to the volume and prices, but I am really feeling terribly under the weather so a thorough explanation will have to wait until tomorrow. Please forgive me. Also, there are many good looking stocks tonight. These caught my eye.

Gotta (Not) Keep em Separated

Gotta (Not) Keep em Separated

I rely very heavily on volume analysis and the reaction of price action to volume. So, the technology that enables one to see where the pressure was that day, on the buy side or sell side, via different color volume bars, seems like a gift. It is. However, I would like to experiment here. If it does not help me, I will go back. I removed the feature that shows the different color volume bars. 
       When analyzing price and volume, we are looking to see the interest in the stock at certain prices and when the stock experiences it's fluctuations. I believe that seeing big green bars makes us think that there is big money buying, and big red bars means there is big money selling. This may or may not be the case. It can be that that is the case, and I can be over complicating it. At times, I will concede that colored volume bars can tell us wonders, but our job is not to look at colors and guess what happens next. I believe that most traders using technical analysis rely heavily on colored volume bars, and would not know what to do without it.  
                         Colored volume bars are a trick. They trick our eyes, and our eyes show our mind what it is shown. When we are shown colored volume, I believe that the relationship between price and volume, our only concern, is overlooked. The colored volume bars draws so much attention, that, we are forced to analyze price and volume as two separate entities. And that can cause financial destruction. For example, if a stock has made a substantial move up and is in the middle of bull flagging, a big green volume bar would tell us that the stock is ready for a next leg up. But had we simply looked at the spike in interest at these levels, green or red, we would assume a much more professional and correct thesis. And that is: We see the big spike of volume on this bull flag action. That means a lot of money bought and a lot of money sold. But what did the smart money do? Green or red will not tell us. Tomorrow's action will. If we had a huge volume spike, that means that the smart money is showing their hand. Are they buying, revealing their ability and interest in moving it out of the flag and to a next leg higher, or are they distributing shares and revealing that the stock no longer has their bullish support. Well, if the next day we close on/near highs or breakout, the big volume of yesterday was probably smart money, and we should prepare for higher prices. If the next day, we close on lows/middle, do not breakout, breakdown, or breakout with no volume, or breakout but close near the lows, than we must be skeptical and assume the smart money has left. Those colored volume bars do not force us to make this correlation, it forces to look at volume to be told when to buy, and price shows the price we buy at.  But this is just one example of how looking at pure volume, no colors, and price reaction is our key tell to what we should prepare for. Of course, many excellent traders are able to use colored volume bars extremely constructively, and still make excellent correlations between price and volume. I am not there yet. So i believe that the true way to get to be that good is to look at it simply. Supply and demand moves the market. Green does not say demand and red does not say supply. The reaction to big volume by price action tells us.There are so many patterns that result in  a big red or green bar and causes us to automatically diagnose, or more like predict, the end result. However, removing this feature and looking at simple volume without being fed misleading information, we are forced to realized that only the next day's price action will tell us who did the buying and who did the selling. Thank you so much and I hope you are having a great weekend

Saturday, June 25, 2011


I do not think the medical laboratories and research sector is going anywhere but down.A few stocks, like $IRWD, look great, but the sector sucks right now.

A Hot Iron

We will begin to analyze the daily chart of $IRWD.Yes, i do like the higher lows, the bull flag, the 20EMA hold. What I like most, however, is this: Look at the volume that came in during Friday's session. huge. It hit some lows, than was immediately bought up on strong demand to rest above the 15.96 breakout area. Also, there was a filing on Thursday to sell 50,000 shares. Friday, somebody picked it up very powerfully. It would be beneficial if you look at the hammer that I circled on the 30 minute chart. Someone big is catching support, hoping to have got a big discount. Included is the daily, and to get a real perspective on how this has traded, the 30 min. Prepare to go higher.

Friday, June 24, 2011

A Quick Look at Retail and Rare Earths

I will be profiling individual stocks in these two sectors on Sunday. I will watch these sectors this week for their respectful decisions at these levels.

More Market swoonalysis for June 24th 2011

Market swoonalysis for June 24 2011

Today was the ultimate definition of the term " constructive". People throw the term around and it usually is paired with " comfort", "profits" , or " bullish". A person really concerned whether something is constructive or not, factors out these feelings and any other emotions. Rather, the wise analyst merely like the fact there prices are now certain of their preferred direction.On Wednesday, March 16th, 2011, we "bottomed out". Many saying we finally recieved a climax in the selling and it was only up from there. I do not think it was. Remember, if we retrace back to a prior level during toppy action, and the volume is not insane, it is likely stuck longs giving it their last shot so they can get out, and short covering knowing this prior level could be support. In order to climax selling, we like to see prices fall to an unfimiliar zone, where everyone who was long and could not stand the pain sold out because all zone's were breached and a free fall looked likely. Here is where the public will begin shorting, noticing without support, there is much downside. Greed is ugly and manifests itself on the short side as well. So now, the smart money buys everything dirt cheap from the longs selling in disgust and the short sellers. I believe today was the start of this. Like a hurdler preparing to leap over a tall gate, momentum must be gathered in order to surmount it. It seems that selling pressure is gearing up its strength to surmount it's support levels to get that. Again, these are my thoughts. Getting short here is %100 uncalled for, as the market has a mind, and it can and does always change. Thanks and have a great weekend, Jason

But All Eateries Are Special

Out of the very small special eatery sector, 3 out of 5 look great. This market is not one to contain hot sectors right now, pure stock picking seems to be the way to go right now, but this small sector does have buyers.

Hard to Get Some Good Credit Here

The credit services sector is by no means a sector that is hiding all of the hot money, but I did find two with some heavy interest and similar bullish charts. Are they signs of an improving credit environment? I have no idea, I am not an economist, but as a stock picker, they look healthy.

Real Estate swoonalysis

We made a higher low at the 12 dollar level and volume is very strong. It could be some strong hands doing some value buying here, with this higher low assisting in the potential bottoming fromation here. Wednesday trading resulted in a dragonfly hammer which is extremely potent, but the potency is only true when we see follow through. If we see follow through to confirm the dragonfly hammer. But with such high volume on a hammer, we must assume strong hands are picking up the down move in a big way, and if smart money is in fact doing the supporting, their support usually causes a close near the highs the next day, thus confirming the dragonfly hammer. However it closed well off of the highs yesterday which can possibly be telling us that even with the huge buying, the supply overcame it. BUT we must respect the volume accompanying this bottoming out formation while it is still here and very much relevant.  We must respect the smart hold of the moving averages and the significance of the 14 dollar level, as well as the huge gap up and the gap hold. Even though it closed weak, we have to focus on what is in front of us.

Market swoonalysis

There are many issues with the SP-500. Let me first begin with yesterday's hammer. People are swooning to the bullish thesis after seeing this hammer, but I am still skeptical. We did not take out wednesday's close. We seem to be stuck in this descending channel. Also, I point out a mini inverted head and shoulders move on the SP-500 that is possibly failing. A failed move could bring a violent move in the opposite direction. Yes, Thursday the 16th did result in a doji/high wave reversal candle. But volume was heavy, and the next few days showed long upper shadows. If the professional, smart money were really buying into this move, there would have been stronger follow through on the 17th. So that strong volume that we saw  on the 16th could really be showing an over supply at those levels, and not heavy demand like a volume bar like that implies at times, because usually strong demand requires some follow through. But if there is little follow through, even demand that strong was overcome by even more supply.The 21st showed a strong day, threatening to bust out of this descending trendline,but the 20EMA remains a huge wall or step forward. A wall for now. I do like how the fact that after a bunch of consecutive bull traps, we are delaying/bucking/avoiding it for now with this hammer. And remember, the more we tap at his support near the 200SMA, the more buyers we take out in the process. Too many touches could spit out all the supporting bids. That being said, I have no right to be neither bull nor bear, and we remain in this sort of bottoming out formation for now, without it being breached so we must act accordingly. Trade well

The Birth of Swooon

            Before I post a single idea, thesis, analysis, or any of that sort, my deepest thanks goes to @StockCats , @Tr8r_x  ,  and  @TradeWithRage for giving me the confidence, as well as the name, for this blog. My twitter name is @swooon, and I was helping with some technical analysis, and, brilliantly, they came up with the term, Swoonalysis. Thank you guys.

                      I am a fairly inexperienced trader, recently blessed with receiving a position at a trading desk in New York City, and I am looking to bring my scientific passion for;  technical analysis, crowd psychology, perceived value, volume manipulation, supply and demand, and, most significantly, individual psychology , to the next level. Every Day. I will have completed my stock market education when I will have completed my life, or I decide to commit financial and emotional suicide. 
               I am 22 years old, am married, and cannot begin to explain how wonderful of angel my wife is. I wish all who read this, as well as those who do not, a wife as supportive, beautiful, understanding, smart, and did i mention supportive? As she. You see, I am in the midst of recovering from a severe serious of brain surgeries. I was diagnosed at age 17 with fatal hydrocephalus. This is ( believe me, if I didn't have it, I would have never heard of it either) when a significantly large tumor is blocking the ventricle which serves as the exit points for cerebral, and all brain fluids. In other words, the mass of fluids that are entering and exiting your brain every second, enter through one ventricle, and exit through another. My tumor was 7 times larger than "normal", and was completely obstructing the exit ventricle. This cause deadly buildup of fluids, causing my brain to swell drastically. As it cannot be detected physically, this was going on for many years without my knowing. I will start from the beginning.  
    When I was in the seventh grade, there was a day that I could not attend school due to abnormal head/neck pains. Dismissing it as a normal headache, I stayed home. I was watching a segment on ESPN that day about a basketball player from Duke who had hydrocephalus, and had severe brain swelling, and after making a miraculous recovery, was now beginning to re learn to play again. He described his symptoms as having very painful, headaches lasting the day, blurry vision, nausea, and sensitivity to bright lights. I shut the TV.
                       I am now 17 years old. It is summertime. I was in a traveling camp in the Israel, and I was pretty much on my own. It was a very active camp, consisting of a stay and experience  in every corner of Israel in a matter of 6 weeks. I, however, had no strength to do anything. Every stop consisted of me sleeping or vomiting, or both, on the bus or in the room of an inn. My friends all made fun of me, calling me a party pooper. I experienced severe headaches, extreme blurry vision, nausea, fatigue, and sensitivity to bright lights. I attributed it to homesickness, middle eastern heat waves, and my obsession with drums and sports. 
                        I came home to New York, and everything got worse. I had endured headaches that made my whole body scream, and the blurry vision, wow. You know how if you don't get a haircut for a bit, and a hair from your bangs gets in your eyes? Well, I kept trying to brush it away. But it was not a hair. Finally, one day, I remembered what I saw on TV, I felt the pain. I went over very calmly to my mother and said, " mom, please take me to a doctor, I am dying". She thought I was crazy, but she took me. At the doctor, my eyes were checked thoroughly, as they are the windows to the brain, and nothing was found. He asked me my symptoms, and I told him everything. He as well attributed it to the heat, my drumming, and my activities in sports. My hand was on the doorknob and I received a call from my mother. She asked me if I told the doctor about the blurry vision. Ok, everything except for that. I went back and told him. He at once said I must go for an MRI. Being as it was Labor Day weekend, I was not able to secure an MRI appointment that day, so I  made on for a week later. 5 minutes later, the neurologist phoned me explaining if I rush over, he will come in to the office for me. I went. I was diagnosed with a 30%  chance to live. The top neurosurgeon  in NY was on vacation, so we scheduled the surgery for 3 days later. I would stay in the hospital. 
However, the fluids were now dripping into my line of vision, and I was no longer capable of seeing. Another surgeon evaluated me again, and came to the conclusion that it was either death or emergency surgery that morning. 
               To make a really really long story not as long, I was explained after a successful surgery that I had exactly one day to live. So many things fell into place magically. Yes, there were more surgeries, and  many many and still are severe changes to my life and complications, but here I am, alive and well. 
                         I was given a new life, and this is what I want to devote a lot of it to. My passion is the workings of the stock market, price,volume,technical analysis. Why? This is what I love? 
Yes. Because it all boils down to simplicity. It is one of the most complex organisms  in the world, but it is driven by one simple thing: 
                  Emotion. Fear, greed,desires,hopes and dreams. This is all what is price action. technical analysis. Volume analysis. This is my first post. I hope to bring you all I have got, and more. So many on twitter and in books and on blogs, sites, and networks. are so skilled, so classy, so generous in sharing knowledge, that it is my duty to do my part for you.
              I devour every tidbit of education I can get, every book,article,video,and thesis, on the stock market I can get my hands on. Particularly the mysterious subject of tape reading/volume,price action. I have so much to learn, and when I am surrounded by such traders as these, i can not wait to take on the next challenge:  @kunal00, @urbanryno, @sangluccitrades, @zortrades,  @traderstewie  @Szaman @Stop_Hunter  @IMBIDHITTER @gtotoy @paulwoll @Elricadon @chessNwine  @The_Real_Fly @SPYder_Crusher @TraderFlorida @FibLine  @TradeWithRage @Tr8r_x @StockCats , @1nvestor @idrinkchai @SPEEROTHEKID @chicagosean @Elricadon  and many more I will post a list of all the greats .

                    This community of traders is like no other in the world. No other profession is connected by shear instinct, gut, uniqueness,healthy skepticism, individuality, and, most importantly, attitude. For many not so subtle reasons, that is our bond. And I intend to work my ass off to strengthen in every day.