Friday, June 24, 2011

Market swoonalysis

There are many issues with the SP-500. Let me first begin with yesterday's hammer. People are swooning to the bullish thesis after seeing this hammer, but I am still skeptical. We did not take out wednesday's close. We seem to be stuck in this descending channel. Also, I point out a mini inverted head and shoulders move on the SP-500 that is possibly failing. A failed move could bring a violent move in the opposite direction. Yes, Thursday the 16th did result in a doji/high wave reversal candle. But volume was heavy, and the next few days showed long upper shadows. If the professional, smart money were really buying into this move, there would have been stronger follow through on the 17th. So that strong volume that we saw  on the 16th could really be showing an over supply at those levels, and not heavy demand like a volume bar like that implies at times, because usually strong demand requires some follow through. But if there is little follow through, even demand that strong was overcome by even more supply.The 21st showed a strong day, threatening to bust out of this descending trendline,but the 20EMA remains a huge wall or step forward. A wall for now. I do like how the fact that after a bunch of consecutive bull traps, we are delaying/bucking/avoiding it for now with this hammer. And remember, the more we tap at his support near the 200SMA, the more buyers we take out in the process. Too many touches could spit out all the supporting bids. That being said, I have no right to be neither bull nor bear, and we remain in this sort of bottoming out formation for now, without it being breached so we must act accordingly. Trade well

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