Thursday, August 25, 2011
Please, Save Your Stength
Good afternoon everyone, I hope everyone is having a good day. I wanted to share a thought with you, in hopes of, a) Getting it off of my chest , and 2) Hoping to receive criticism contesting my opinions and learning something from you guys. There is talk of the teevee sets, and in the daily publishings, of a double bottom put in the Standard and Poor's 500 , as well as the other major indices, and we are from here on in headed higher, and combined with the "climactic selling" we saw in early August, this has to be a major low. I would venture to humbly,yet readily dis spell this theory. Firstly, I don't care how many people say its too obvious, but we came off of a historic head and shoulders pattern on the monthly,weekly,and daily timeframes.And to confirm it,we broke the neckline with vehemence. There is nothing else to question about that occurrence. We ended distribution, and began our decline. Second step in a decline is to form a weak volume,feeble, "double bottom" get people hopeful, drift up a bit,and continue our rollover. ( Which I think we will do). Thirdly, the volume on the bounce was exactly what to expect after a vicious top reversal pattern. People are saying everywhere that " volume is an issue, but it's ok" , quickly dismissing volume,as long as the patterns are there. People, let me say this: PATTERNS ARE NOT MAGIC!!!!! Patterns are invalid. Volume and activity are extraordinarily valid. Volume and activity create these patterns, thus making them valid as a forecasting tool. But, hence, without volume, the patterns are not valid. Here, this might make it easier: PATTERNS = 0 , VOLUME= 100 , VOLUME+PATTERNS=100 PATTERNS-VOLUME= NOTHING.
The volume on the head and shoulders reversal was perfect, including the break of the neckline with huge volume. The climactic sell bottom? What climactic volume? Volume was steadily increasing for a week. Huge volume means nothing. RELATIVELY huge volume is important. And the huge volume day was not relatively huge, because the days leading up to the eighth of August had highly increasing volume as well. The double bottom claim? No. What is a double bottom, why does it mean anything? Because the bears try to break support, and lose steam once. Than, they regather their resources, recuperate, and accumulate strength. Than, they try again, stops placed below the prior low are taken out, and the bears still cannot get it done. So the fact that the bears tried once to press, couldnt, took time to re-strategize, tried again, exhausted all their selling strength in the attempt to break lows, and once they couldnt get it done again, only buyers with cheap accumulated shares were left. So the main resaon why a double bottom bears significance is because they took awhile to gather all of their strength, and still were not able to break lows with any strength. So the key factor is the time in between double bottoms. The more time spent by the bears gathering strength to retry breaking lows, the stronger the bulls appear if they still hold bids. The less time in between each bottom, that means that the bears didn't really use any major resources to break lows again, so just because that held, it does not mean anything. Gathering strength takes a lot of time, and without spending time, that means strength was not used. So yes, the bulls held for the second time. But, against what? I mean, how much force did the bears exert? Judging by the lack of volume, no undercut to take out stops and accumulate shares, and the lack of time in between bottoms, not much. The bears are obviously not worried about this "bottom" , not covering, and not wasting strength. When the Miami Heat are up by 25 in the fourth quarter. Why not? Because the Heat want to conserve him, their momentum,for when they really need it,need Lebron. Right now, up 25 in the fourth,the game is already won,so why waste their true power? Save it for when it matters. In a big game,in the playoffs, when they are facing TRUE OPPOSITION THAT MAY DEFEAT THEM each basket matters, so then, they will use every resource they have. Well, the Heat represents the market. If the game belongs to them, they will save their star for the real opposition. And apparently, it aint here yet. Lastly, when does the worst news come out, and when does the best news come out? Exactly. Bad news at bottom,great news at the top. Warren Buffet is saving Bank of America. Buffet Top, anyone?